The Wind Point owner's view — entry → today → exit, the multiple-expansion that recurring revenue earns, and the synergy programs behind it.
Enterprise value has gone from $104M at entry to $1.28B today; $1.73B of the plan remains to the $3.01B exit. The prize is multiple expansion — push recurring mix from 40% toward 45% and bank the $17M of open synergy before exit.
4 of 4 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Adjusted EBITDA $116M vs $120M, Adj. EBITDA Margin 14.8% vs 16.0%, Recurring Revenue Mix 40.0% vs 45.0%
$1.73B of enterprise value stands between today's $1.28B and the $3.01B exit plan — the swing that realizes the Wind Point thesis.
$17M of $24M run-rate synergy is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to actuals.
Insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems consolidation
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $116M of EBITDA that is $232M–$348M from re-rating alone.
Wind Point underwrites a Value Creation Plan from entry to exit. Pavion has gone from ~$100M to $785M of revenue; the prize from here is multiple expansion — recurring revenue re-rates the business, and monitoring RMR is valued separately at 30–50×. This is the screen that tracks it.
Each lever shown entry → today → exit, with progress through the plan.
| Workstream | Lever | Entry | Today | Exit | Progress | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scale the platform | Organic + accretive M&A | 100M | 785M | 1200M | On track | |
| Shift to recurring | Attach monitoring / ITM on every install | 34% | 40% | 48% | Behind | |
| Expand margin | Synergy capture + operating leverage | 12.8% | 14.8% | 18% | On track | |
| Grow profit | Scale × margin | 13M | 116M | 215M | On track | |
| Delever | EBITDA growth + cash | 6× | 4.2× | 3× | On track | |
| Re-rate the multiple | Recurring-driven re-rating | 8× | 11× | 14× | On track |
Recurring mix moves the EBITDA multiple. At 40%, Pavion sits in the platform tier — every point toward 45% pulls it up.
Reaching the scaled tier (45%+ recurring) is worth 2–3 EBITDA turns — on $116M of EBITDA, that's $232M–$348M of enterprise value from re-rating alone.
Recurring monitoring revenue trades on its own convention — separate from, and on top of, the EBITDA multiple.
So what: growing the monitoring book (attach ON-X on every install) creates value at 30–50× — far above the 11× the whole company trades at. It's the single highest-return dollar in the plan.
The concrete programs behind the synergy % — not a slogan, a checklist.
Wind Point's playbook in action: put acquired companies on Pavion's insurance, fleet, purchasing and systems. $17M of run-rate is still to capture — the same work that finishes integration and flips the newest brands to office-grain actuals.