The outside-in view — external signals that create demand and risk, and the acquisition funnel that compounds the platform.
$151M of leverage headroom funds an M&A funnel of 7 targets ($178M revenue); 3 are advanced (Dil→LOI) at $93M. Convert the advanced funnel into signed LOIs and prosecute the 2 high-materiality signals before the window closes.
2 of 3 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Net Debt / EBITDA 4.2x vs 4.0x, Adjusted EBITDA $116M vs $120M, Revenue Growth (YoY) 18.0% vs 20.0%
Sets deal capacity and refinancing risk.
$93M of advanced-target revenue is fundable within $151M of headroom — the scale that compounds the platform.
Accelerate ISC ERP/SOC cutover; rebalance project mix toward recurring.
Southeast GM 200bps below plan amid RFI/ISC integration drag.
Hold management to 90-day synergy recovery plan; track at next board meeting.
Synergy at 78% of model; integration 80% complete.
Pavion grows two ways from the outside in: signals (a customer's expansion or distress) that create demand, and acquisitions that add scale. This view turns both into action — every signal carries an implied move, and the M&A funnel is sized against the $151M of borrowing headroom available to fund it.
Each signal is a demand or risk trigger; the note is the move it implies.
Concentrate pursuit and acquisitions where the market is both big and fast.
7 targets · $178M of revenue · fundable within $151M of leverage headroom.
| Target | BU | Region | Revenue | EBITDA% | Fit | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional fire integrator (Southeast) | Fire Safety | Southeast | $45M | 12% | High | Diligence |
| AV / UC specialist (West) | Integration | West | $30M | 14% | High | IOI |
| Healthcare integration (national) | Integration | Multi | $28M | 13% | High | Sourced |
| Access-control MSP (Mountain & Central) | Security | Mountain & Central | $22M | 11% | Medium | Contacted |
| Critical-comms / DAS (Southwest) | Fire Safety | Mountain & Central | $20M | 15% | Medium | Contacted |
| Monitoring / central-station (Northeast) | Fire Safety | Northeast | $18M | 18% | High | LOI |
| Cyber / OT security firm (Mid-Atlantic) | Security | Mid-Atlantic | $15M | 16% | Medium | Sourced |
Priority: the LOI/IOI targets ($93M) fit High and add recurring density (monitoring, AV) where utilization and margin are weakest — and they sit comfortably inside the $151M of debt headroom. Each one also flips a region from estimate to actuals as it integrates.