CFO Scenario Planner

Model the value-creation levers on profit, cash, leverage, covenant and equity value — then run an agentic, web-grounded stress-test that benchmarks the plan against live market multiples, rates and growth.

Pavion · FY26 (modeled)

#4 SDM Top Systems Integrators (2025)

2,800 employees · 70+ US sites · 23 countries

Scenarios

Pull the levers

Collect faster (DSO)6d

One-time working-capital release+$12.9M cash

Extend payables (DPO)4d

One-time, on COGS — pay to terms+$5.7M cash

Lift recurring mix3pt

Shift project work to annuity (~8pt premium)+$1.9M EBITDA

Capture cross-sell25%

of $248M whitespace → $62.0M rev+$15.5M EBITDA

Operational / SG&A gains1pt

Synergy · utilization · first-time-fix+$8.5M EBITDA

EV / EBITDA multiple12x

Exit valuation lens — the agent benchmarks this

The agent plans searches, queries DuckDuckGo for live sector multiples, rates and growth, then stress-tests your scenario against Pavion's record and the market. Illustrative model on modeled baseline figures.

Equity value to the owner

$1.23B+$329M

from $905M · EV $1.70B at 12× − net debt $469M

Cash freed

$19M

one-time · −6d DSO, +4d DPO

Baseline → scenariocovenant headroom 2.20x

Metric	Today		Scenario	Δ
Revenue	$785M	→	$847M
Adj. EBITDA	$116M	→	$142M	+$26M
EBITDA margin	14.8%	→	16.7%	+1.9pt
Recurring mix	40%	→	44%
Free cash flow	$48M	→	$83M	+$35M
Net leverage	4.20x	→	3.30x	-0.90x
Enterprise value	$1.39B	→	$1.70B
Equity value	$905M	→	$1.23B	+$329M

Leverage vs 5.5x covenant

5.5x

scenario 3.30xtoday 4.20x (line)