On this pageFunnel Forecast Win / loss Top deals

Sales / Pipeline 360

The front of the funnel — pipeline by stage, forecast vs plan, win/loss, and the deals that decide the quarter.

Pavion · FY26 (modeled)

#4 SDM Top Systems Integrators (2025)

2,800 employees · 70+ US sites · 23 countries

▲ Executive read· the answer, then the moves

Q3 FY26 commit $205M sits $35M below the $240M plan — $80M of best-case upside must convert to make the number. Coverage is 5.2x on $1.24B of pipeline; the call is winnable but only if the at-risk upside is forced to close.

3 of 3 headline metrics improving vs prior · all on or above target

Do now — ranked by urgency

1
Convert $80M of best-case upside to close the $35M plan gapAct now
Why it matters
Commit $205M is $35M short of the $240M Q3 FY26 plan — the gap that decides whether the quarter lands.
What's driving it
Q3 FY26 commit $205M vs $240M plan
$80M best-case upside above commit
FYI
Pipeline $1.24B (5.2x coverage), $544M weighted
Owner: CRO
Open forecast →
2
$8M ARR at risk — Q4 FY26Act now
Why it matters
Each churn point on the base ≈ recurring revenue lost.
What's driving it
renewal window Q4 FY26
Signal: Renewal risk
FYI
Of $51M due in Q4 FY26, $8M is churn-flagged.
Owner: Chief Customer Officer
Act →▤ open the at-risk contracts
3
$9M ARR at risk — Q2 FY27Act now
Why it matters
Each churn point on the base ≈ recurring revenue lost.
What's driving it
renewal window Q2 FY27
Signal: Renewal risk
FYI
Of $47M due in Q2 FY27, $9M is churn-flagged.
Owner: Chief Customer Officer
Act →▤ open the at-risk contracts
4
Attack the top loss reason: Price ($95M lost)Watch
Why it matters
$-win-rate is 67% ($428M won vs $210M lost); Price is the single largest leak at $95M.
What's driving it
$-win-rate 67%
Top loss Price $95M across 70 deals
FYI
Top win driver: Superior platform / one-stop $210M
Tighten discount discipline via Quote 360
Discount discipline →

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↗ Where this connects — act / drill across

👥Customer 360· whose accounts the deals sit in 🧾Quote / CPQ 360· the quotes behind the funnel 🛰Market Intel & M&A· signals driving the pipeline 💰Finance 360· forecast vs plan

● LiveBuilt forCRO / Sales VPs· coverage & forecast callSales Ops· stage velocity & hygieneCEO / Board· will we make the quarter

Pavion is pursuing $1.24B across the funnel ($544M weighted). This view answers the CRO's two questions — will we make the quarter (forecast vs plan) and why we win or lose — and points at the deals that move the number.

Data backing: pipeline_stage · forecast · winloss · opportunity · kpi

$1.24B

Qualified pipeline

1080 opps

$544M

Weighted pipeline

value × win-prob

67%

$-Win-rate

won ÷ (won+lost) $

$880M

Bookings

book-to-bill 1.12x

$430M

Backlog

signed, not delivered

Coverage

Pipeline by stage

Value and win-probability rise toward the close — weighted value is what to bank on.

Qualify · 520 opps · 20% win$410M

Develop · 310 opps · 40% win$360M

Proposal · 180 opps · 60% win$290M

Negotiation · 70 opps · 80% win$180M

Dark fill = win-probability within each stage's value. Weighted pipeline totals $544M.

The forecast call

Q3 FY26 — $205M commit vs $240M plan

Commit, best-case and closed-to-date against the plan line.

Q1 FY26 · actualclosed $218M vs plan $210M

Q2 FY26 · actualclosed $221M vs plan $225M

Q3 FY26 · currentcommit $205M · best $285M

Q4 FY26 · forecastcommit $150M · best $300M

Q3 FY26: commit $205M is $35M below the $240M plan; $80M of best-case upside must convert to close the gap. Black line = plan.

Why we win & lose

$-win-rate 67% · $428M won vs $210M lost

Clone the win reasons into low-win families; attack the top loss reason first.

Why we win

Superior platform / one-stop$210M · 142

Incumbent / relationship$130M · 96

Service & monitoring attach$88M · 61

Why we lose

Price$95M · 70

Timing / budget pulled$70M · 38

Product / scope gap$45M · 24

Read it: the platform / one-stop story wins the most ($210M); Price is the top loss ($95M) — tighten discount discipline (see Quote 360) before chasing new demand.

Move the number

Named deals in play

Signal-sourced deals convert higher — prioritize them.

Opportunity	Customer	Solution	Value	Stage	Win %	Source
Oracle — multi-region DC security + ON-X	Oracle	Security + Monitoring	$12.5M	Proposal	60%	signal
FedEx — hub perimeter + video analytics	FedEx	Security	$8.4M	Qualify	45%	signal
Kaiser — nurse call + RTLS refresh	Kaiser Permanente	Integration	$6.2M	Proposal	50%	outbound
UPS — fire + mass notification bundle	UPS	Fire Safety	$4.7M	Qualify	40%	outbound
Align — mfg expansion AV + access	Align Technology	Integration + Security	$3.1M	Develop	48%	signal
Bloomberg — Security cross-sell (11 sites)	Bloomberg	Security + ON-X	$1.4M	Develop	55%	signal