Value-Creation Simulator

Pick a scenario or pull the levers — see profit, cash, leverage, covenant headroom and enterprise value move in real time, then stress-test it with AI.

Pavion · FY26 (modeled)

#4 SDM Top Systems Integrators (2025)

2,800 employees · 70+ US sites · 23 countries

Scenarios

Pull the levers

Collect faster (DSO)

High6d

One-time working-capital release+$12.9M cash

Lift recurring mix

Med3pt

Shift project work to annuity (~8pt margin premium)+$1.9M EBITDA

Capture cross-sell

Med25%

of $248M whitespace → $62.0M revenue+$15.5M EBITDA

Operational gains

High1pt

SG&A synergy · utilization · first-time-fix+$8.5M EBITDA

EV / EBITDA multiple

Market12x

Valuation lens for the Board / PE owner

Recurring carries ~8pt EBITDA premium · cross-sell at 25% incremental margin, 60% recurring · DSO release is one-time working capital · EV at the chosen multiple. Illustrative model on modeled baseline figures.

Enterprise value

$1.70B+$310M

from $1.39B baseline · at 12× EBITDA

Rule of 40 (growth + margin)33 → 43

white line = 40, the healthy-platform threshold

Cash freed

$13M

one-time, from −6d DSO

Lands in 0–6 months · funds the next acquisition with no new sales.

EBITDA bridge · $116M → $142M+$26M (16.7% margin)

$116M

+$16M

+$8M

Cross-sell whitespace+$15.5M

Operational gains+$8.5M

Recurring mix shift+$1.9M

Ranked by EBITDA contribution — the top bar is the biggest lever in this scenario. (DSO shows as cash, not EBITDA.)

Baseline → scenario

Metric	Today		Scenario	Δ
Revenue	$785M	→	$847M
Adj. EBITDA	$116M	→	$142M
EBITDA margin	14.8%	→	16.7%	+1.9pt
ARR (recurring)	$314M	→	$375M	mix 44%
Net leverage	4.20x	→	3.34x	-0.86x
Enterprise value	$1.39B	→	$1.70B	+$310M
Rule of 40	33	→	43

Covenant headroom2.16x below the 5.5x ceiling

5.5x covenant

scenario 3.34xtoday 4.20x (line)