PPavionExecutive Cockpit

Board — Value Creation & Risk

The roll-up thesis: durable growth, margin expansion, recurring-revenue quality, prudent leverage and disciplined capital allocation.

Pavion · FY26 (modeled)
#4 SDM Top Systems Integrators (2025)
2,800 employees · 70+ US sites · 23 countries
Executive read· the answer, then the moves

The roll-up thesis is proving out: 3 integrated cohorts delivered +5pts of EBITDA margin and leverage sits at 4.2x against the 5.5x covenant. The remaining value is in the 4 unintegrated cohorts — finish synergy capture before exit diligence prices it.

4 of 6 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Adj. EBITDA Margin 14.8% vs 16.0%, Rule of 40 33 vs 40, Revenue Growth (YoY) 18.0% vs 20.0%

Do now — ranked by urgency
  1. 1
    Covenant headroom 0.9× (lev 4.6× vs 5.5×)Act now
    Why it matters

    Sets deal capacity and refinancing risk.

    What's driving it
    • Q1 (act)
    • Signal: Threshold
    FYI
    • Net-debt/EBITDA 4.6× against a 5.5× ceiling.
    • Owner: CFO · Treasury
  2. 2
    Bank the unrealized synergy in newer cohortsWatch
    Why it matters

    4 of 7 cohorts sit below 80% synergy capture; integrated cohorts already show +5pts of margin — the same playbook is unbanked EBITDA until applied.

    What's driving it
    • 4 cohorts not yet Integrated
    • EBITDA margin 14.8%
    FYI
    • 21+ acquisitions since 2020
    • Owner: CFO · COO/PMO
  3. 3
    ECD synergy realization behind planWatch
    Why it matters

    Hold management to 90-day synergy recovery plan; track at next board meeting.

    What's driving it
    • Synergy
    • Signal: Alert
    FYI

    Synergy at 78% of model; integration 80% complete.

  4. 4
    Recurring mix below 45% targetWatch
    Why it matters

    Push subscription/ON-X attach on Integration installs.

    What's driving it
    • Recurring Mix
    • Signal: Alert
    FYI

    Recurring 40% vs 45% strategic target; Integration BU dilutive.

Investment thesis · Wind Point Partners (2020)

Build the platform leader in fire, security & integration via disciplined M&A — then expand margin and recurring revenue through integration and the cross-sell flywheel.

21+
acquisitions since 2020
+5pts
avg EBITDA uplift (integrated)
40%
recurring revenue mix
4.2x
net leverage (cov 5.5x)
Total Revenue
$785M
▲ 18.0% vs priorTarget $800M
Adj. EBITDA Margin
14.8%
▲ 7.2% vs priorTarget 16.0%
Rule of 40
33
▼ 13.2% vs priorTarget 40
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
▼ 25.0% vs priorTarget 20.0%
ARR (Recurring)
$314M
▲ 19.8% vs priorTarget $330M
Net Revenue Retention
106.0%
▲ 2.9% vs priorTarget 110.0%
Trailing 12 months

Revenue & EBITDA trajectory

Consistent top-line growth with steady margin expansion.

Diversification

Revenue by business unit

Security45%
Fire Safety35%
Integration20%
Top verticals
M&A thesis validation

Acquisition cohort performance

Proof of the roll-up: EBITDA uplift and synergy realization per acquired brand.

Acquired brandYearRevenueARREBITDA upliftSynergyStatus
Firecom2021$34M$12M9%→14% (+5)92%Integrated
DavEd Fire Systems2021$22M$8M8%→13% (+5)90%Integrated
AFA Protective Systems2022$96M$52M11%→16% (+5)88%Integrated
RFI Enterprises2023$58M$19M10%→13% (+3)74%In progress
Integrated Security & Comms (ISC)2024$41M$14M9%→11% (+2)55%In progress
ECD Systems2024$37M$13M9%→12% (+3)78%In progress
Signet2024$29M$9M8%→9% (+1)40%Early

Integrated cohorts (AFA, Firecom, DavEd) show ~5pt EBITDA expansion post-integration; newer cohorts (ISC, Signet) remain early with synergy capture in progress.

Capital allocation & risk

Leverage, liquidity & cash

Covenant headroom funds the continued M&A program; cash generation supports debt service.

Net Debt / EBITDA
4.2x
▼ 8.7% vs priorTarget 4.0x
Covenant Headroom
1.3x
▲ 44.4% vs priorTarget 1.0x
DSCR
1.8x
▲ 12.5% vs priorTarget 1.5x
Liquidity (cash + revolver)
$132M
▲ 34.7% vs priorNo target
Free Cash Flow
$48M
▲ 54.8% vs priorTarget $55M
M&A Synergy Realization
78.0%
▲ 11.4% vs priorTarget 100.0%
Material signals

Strategic & market watch

High-materiality external signals and competitive M&A from the adapter feed.

News
Oracle announces new US cloud regions
Oracle · Expansion · → multi-region DC security opportunity
Positive
EDGAR
FedEx 10-K: elevated hub-automation capex
FedEx · Capex · → perimeter + analytics pull-through
Positive
News
Competitor acquires regional fire integrator
Competitor · M&A · → defend Southeast accounts
Neutral